Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Election Prediction: Kerry Will Win

Kerry will win both the electoral college and the popular vote. It won't be too close in the electoral college; my predicition is that he wins the electoral college vote, 301 to 237. He'll win the big three swing states: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Of the blue in 2000 states, he'll lose Wisconsin, but it won't matter.

As far as the popular vote, he'll probably win 50% to 48 or 49% for Bush (1-2% split between Nader(independent), Cobb (green) and Bednarik(libertarian). If I had to guess, Bednarik gets the most votes of that group. If there is a God, Nader will be swallowed by a giant toad after the election, never to pollute the political discourse with his nonsense ever again.

I base my conclusions on the fact that more than 50% of the Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, most Americans seem to trust Kerry (or trust him enough to oust a guy they really don't like) . They are not fired up by him, but they'll be ok choosing him. The issue is whether these folks expressing displeasure with the direction of the country will turn out.

Answer: There will be a huge turn out of younger and nontraditional voters that will tip the election in Kerry's favor. The scare tactics Bush has wantonly advanced will not outweigh the catastrophic foreign and domestic policy failures of this administration. Voter intimidation will fail. More of Kerry's base and these new voters lives in swing states, where are more of Bush's base lives in states he'll win anyways.

There you have it. Post your predicitions in the comment section.


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